War size distribution: Empirical regularities behind conflicts
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper analyses the statistical distribution of war sizes. Using the method recently proposed by Clauset, Shalizi, and Newman (2009), we find moderate support for a Pareto-type distribution (power law), using data from different sources (COW and UCDP) and periods. A power law accurately describes not only the size distribution of all wars, but also the distribution of the sample of wars in most years. However, the log-normal distribution is a plausible alternative model that we cannot reject. Furthermore, the study of the growth rates of battle deaths reveals a clear decreasing pattern; the growth of deaths declines faster if the number of initial deaths is greater.
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